In less than six months, Speaker Mike Johnson faces a pivotal moment of decision. The Louisiana Republican stands at a familiar crossroads, where he must weigh honoring traditional US national interests against aligning with the disruptive tactics of his party’s far-right faction. This dilemma echoes the challenges confronted by his predecessors – Kevin McCarthy, Paul Ryan, and John Boehner – who found themselves ousted from political relevance for their refusal to steer the nation into debt, financial crises, or compromise its global standing.
Now, as Johnson seeks to advance crucial aid packages for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan – essential for shielding US allies from the threats of Russian, Iranian, and Chinese authoritarianism, and upholding American power and prestige – he faces intense opposition from GOP extremists accusing him of betraying the party’s base.
“In doing what is right, one must accept the consequences,” Johnson remarked in an interview, anticipating three pivotal days that may determine his tenure as Speaker.
The outlook appears bleak for the novice speaker. With a narrow majority, he can ill afford to lose more than one GOP vote to pass legislation along party lines. However, hardline figures like Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia and Thomas Massie of Kentucky are poised to challenge his leadership with a vote of no confidence should he proceed with the Ukraine bill.
Other conservative Republicans are cautioning Johnson that the $60 billion Ukraine aid package must be contingent upon stringent new border security measures, despite the party’s rejection of the most conservative immigration compromise in decades, influenced by presumptive GOP nominee Donald Trump.
GOP Schism Threatens Johnson’s Leadership
This division within the GOP underscores how Trump has undermined the party’s internationalist principles in favor of his “America First” ideology. Lawmakers like Greene and Texas Rep. Chip Roy challenge conventional national security arguments by asserting that safeguarding the southern border, amid increased crossings by undocumented migrants in recent months, is paramount to any US interest.
Roy, who is considering support for efforts to remove Johnson from his position, expressed disappointment in the speaker and indicated he was no longer willing to extend leniency. Johnson’s escalating vulnerability on this issue is particularly significant, as he had previously insisted that Ukraine aid be contingent upon the White House implementing stringent measures at the US-Mexico border.
Johnson finds himself in a precarious position due to mounting right-wing opposition to his foreign aid proposals. To even advance a rule for a sequence of votes on the bills this weekend, Johnson will likely rely on Democratic votes.
If Greene proceeds with her motion to remove him from the speaker’s chair, several Democrats are prepared to intervene to ensure the passage of Ukraine aid, which Kyiv urgently needs to sustain its fight.
While this strategy might offer Johnson temporary reprieve, a GOP speaker reliant on Democratic support risks being perceived as beholden to the minority party and could face an uncertain future.