Adding to the list of cherished American political traditions dismantled by Donald Trump, we must now include the South Carolina primary.
Throughout its vibrant history, the South Carolina presidential contest has been characterized by its intensity, significance, and, most recently for Joe Biden, its rejuvenating effect. Yet, one thing it had never been was lackluster. That is, until now. Nikki Haley has conducted a conventional campaign against perhaps the most unconventional candidate of our era. Trump, if one were to be generous, has put forth minimal effort in campaigning in the state this month. Furthermore, the national press corps has largely disengaged from the race, deeming the outcome a foregone conclusion after two Trump victories. Consequently, they see little reason to invest in elaborate setups and deploy anchors, as they have done in previous showdowns here.
At first glance, this state of dormancy is striking. Here we have the long-awaited, head-to-head contest for the GOP nomination, with establishment Republicans finally rallying behind their sole alternative to Trump. Notably, this alternative is a woman, whose pivotal moment will unfold in her own home state. It appears to be quite the story. During one of his rare visits to South Carolina ahead of Saturday’s primary, Trump, at the same rally, publicly questioned the whereabouts of Haley’s husband, who was deployed in combat, and controversially suggested Russia invade a NATO ally that wasn’t meeting defense spending expectations. Following this, the former president promptly returned to the golf course. Shortly afterward, Vladimir Putin’s most vocal domestic critic died in a Siberian prison—a poignant reminder of the character of the Kremlin leader Trump has often boasted of befriending.
Haley attempted to leverage these events—highlighting the rarity of an opponent taunting a military family and openly encouraging aggression against America’s allies. However, Trump’s outburst seems to have had limited impact on his support among Republicans, a pattern observed throughout his nearly nine years in the political arena—changes, if any, are marginal.
This is the overarching reason why the South Carolina race feels so underwhelming. In this Republican contest, demographics dictate outcomes, borrowing a familiar phrase.